Goodluck Jonathan Approach to Boko Haram Counterinsurgency;Proactive Vs Reactive

If...citizens believe they will not be protected from retributive violence, their willingness to participate with authorities will be understandably reduced….brian jackson

Nigerians and even non-Nigerians woke up to a startling and unpleasant Pre-independence package on the 23rd of september 2013.An unfortunate boat mishap which claimed over 100 lives with some still missing. while we were deeply engrossed in the emotional thrall of this sad occurrence, the sudden news of the students callously murdered in their sleep by Boko Haram terrorists beamed across the print and electronic media to worldwide indignation and grief.At the last count we had lost more than 50 students,i will neither go into further recorded and confirmed casualties of Boko Haram terrorist attacks both after this and before.

President Goodluck Jonathan's  media chat was intended as an avenue to mount a defence of his Government s scorecard in the 2 years plus he attained the
post,however for all the goodwill and national cohesion he hoped to garner it was simply savvy sloganeering that ensued.The issue that  i was most interested in was that of terrorism especially in the wake of the incessant and unnecessary fatalities culminating in the sad occurrence involving the Yobe students of the University of Agriculture.However when asked about this,our President simply shrugged smiling and offered up a series of half hearted and non committal answers making me come to the uncomfortable realisation that the issue of terrorism was probably so low on his order of priorities that he was simply not as motivated enough as i reckoned.

The current approach towards fighting terrorism by the Govt is unsustainable at best especially in view of the transient nature modern terrorism keeps evolving into,this is in addition to modern advances,more tailored and complex technological advancement and a more sophisticated networking deployed in their ranks worldwide.For the relevant Government  agencies to isolate,take charge and effectively control the emerging strain of terrorism a new and radical approach must be adopted.Indeed we must ask ourselves a completely different  set of questions;How can the Perennial state of insecurity pervading over a whole region and slowly spreading all over Nigeria be curtailed and effectively controlled by Government? How can we halt the state of insecurity in order to attract and retain more than our fair share of a finite global business and investment opportunities?

Attracting global businesses from the western entrepreneurs into Nigeria is already difficult and getting progressively worse no thanks to the widely held  negative western perception about us ranging from unstable Governments and policies,corruption,security  because far from enabling Nigeria's future prosperity Government and politicians led by the President are putting fundamental barriers in the way . 

The Maplecroft annual terrorism risk index in its fifth and newest offering rates Nigeria as the 7th most  prone to terror attack over Columbia,Sudan and several other countries.(http://maplecroft.com/about/news/terrorism_risk_index_2013.html) it is instructive to note that just 2 years ago Nigeria was No19 on this same lists of extreme security challenge.

The Institute for Economy and Peace an international global think tank in their Global Terrorism Index (GTI) rates Nigeria 5th with a score of 7.242 over Somalia .

Borno state Commissioner for Information Bwala in a Thisday interview states that it will take at least 20years for them to recover from the socio economic devastation back to where they were before the Boko Haram crisis started.In Kano about 80% of businesses are reported to have closed shops mostly owned by the Igbos and others causing a marked downturn in the business climate and the rock bottom price of properties,with mansions going for as low as 500,000 Naira. In Jos which used to be a cosmopolitan,organic and laid back state highly favoured by western expatriates due to the slightly cooler weather,it is now lifeless with the resultant effects of the mass exodus from the there.

This is without dwelling on the economic devastation this state of insecurity has wreaked on the rest of the 17 Northern states to varying degrees.The collateral damage in form of human fatalities can never be quantified,neither can the emotional and psychological impact be measured accurately.

Presently the  Nigerian Government approach towards Boko Haram has been far more reactive and punitive than anything.After any attack when the real Boko Haram operatives must have long departed back to their enclave most times across a porous border towards the Niger/chad,the JTF will storm into the affected town or city not only indiscriminately  shooting to wound or even kill innocent people,arresting people on sight but totally shutting down telecommunications so there is no way for victims to contact anxious family and friends.This simply does not produce effective results but serves to incur the wrath and incubates deep seated resentment in the heart and mind of the besieged community towards the JTF whom they see as invading forces bullying and subjugating them. 

The all africa report by Sudarsan Raghavan published December 30, in the Washinton Post states that the Joint Military Task Force carried out extra judicial killings,imprisoned hundreds on flimsy grounds,looted and burnt shops and houses.(http://allafrica.com/stories/201301010008.html)

Nigerians living in these region are thus subjected to double jeopardy first by terrorist attacks and then by the Joint Task Force who are meant to bring succour to them.In this case one can hardly blame them if they are unwilling to cooperate or exhibit belligerent attitude towards Government forces and agencies.Repeated victims of Government sanctioned brutality on that scale will not only lead to indigene and residents being hostile towards Government but even actively helping the terrorists by shielding,enabling and even joining them.The Department for Security Services (Dss) under Marlyn Ogar are already unhelpful and the whole security sector cannot justify the over 1trillion Naira budget allocation,if the current  Government rhetoric is anything to go by they have no intention of deviating from this shoot first ask later approach which is already producing retrogressive results.To effectively control and minimise even extirpate the terror attacks and resultant insecurity it is important and imperative that Government must change its approach from the punitive and reactionary to that of Pro actively Pre emptive and intelligence led.

Forget the Ak47 sub machine guns,the rocket launchers,C4 explosives and Dynamites amongst other weapons favoured by terrorists.I submit that the most successful and important weapon in a terrorist's arsenal especially in an insurgency situation is the human cover of the residents in a town village or community.Due to a limit in their numbers and weaponry insurgents will always avoid a full on toe to toe with Government forces but attack under cover of darkness and melt away into the anonymity cover of darkness afforded by the night.

Brian Jackson opines in the monograph "Counterinsurgency intelligence in the long war"(the british experience in the civil war)chronicling the Irish civil war that insurgents were able to fight and sustain a long drawn out war against much stronger and more equipped English forces because they blend into the population hence are much difficult for the conventional forces to find and neutralise. (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/sep/11/iraq.comment)

The first action the Government must undertake in the radical change towards fighting  terrorism is to change the approach of the JTF towards those those they are charged with protecting,they must start by winning the heart and mind of the average Nigerian,eroded trust must be regained and carefully cultivated and sustained.The Iraqi war is a vivid instance of the American forces doing this.General Patreus in his counter-insurgency manual states that it is imperative for his soldiers to work on the hearts and minds of those Iraqis who supported the insurgents and insurgency.(http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/sep/11/iraq.comment)

I cannot state enough times that It is unhelpful for JTF forces to get into a community and the first thing they do is to inflict severe brutalities and violence on those who are already victims of serious and sustained terrorist attacks.To unmask the identities of the real Boko Haram and their terror cells their myriad of networks from Nigeria across the border,befriending the average communities,villagers and earning their trust  from the youngest to the oldest is key.Their religious and traditional sensibilities must  also be acknowledged and respected.

Another pertinent change of approach which the DSS must as a matter of fact adopt is a change from an over-reliance on violence using armed forces who most times are Reactive of attacks rather than Pre emptive as mentioned earlier and only arrive the scene after the deed has been done i keep making reference to this all through due to the staggering estimated 7000 plus Nigerians lost as statistics under the collateral damage in the past couple of years.They must pay more attention and commit much more funds,attention and priority to a multi layered intelligence led fight on terror.Investment in ultra modern surveillance equipments and cultivating intelligence sources.This will radically reduce blood shed and collateral damage on both sides especially innocent Nigerians and will allow the DSS the freedom of gathering hard surveillance evidence,listening to key players and how they operate,their source of funding,collaborators and godfathers with a view to capturing and smashing the top echelon rather than simply killing low level foot soldiers. Decentralised semi-independent terror cells are the new mode of terrorism so intelligence is the best way to establish complex connections between different cells.

Other key ingredient  in the bigger counter insurgency architecture which must as a matter of fact be included is a retraining of the Nigerian Police Force in modern emergency response,crowd control and to work in concert with the relevant Government agencies in counter insurgency measures.

Scott steward states while doing an analysis and proffering solutions concerning the July 21 Oslo attacks explains that, while Government agencies sanctioned with the responsibilities and trained are in the best position to tackle suspicious activities by terrorists,however those he labelled "GRASSROOT DEFENDERS" the normal police officers on patrol who have a greater access to our neighbourhoods,surroundings and general population are most likely to stumble upon and detect terrorist attacks,especially when they are trying to engage "soft targets" (http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110803-fighting-grassroots-terrorism-local-vigilance-help) 

The incident involving the unfortunate police operative some years ago can be recalled vividly. The sad case of the Nigerian Police Sergeant Badang in Ungwar Sarki Kaduna State who tried to use an ordinary metal detector to diffuse a bomb to disastrous outcome.His bravery and valour on duty while acknowledged and applauded was misplaced through no fault of his own but the failure of The Nigerian Police Force who have not properly trained,educated and equipped him.

In addition to the re-training of Police Officers,the Civilian JTF who must be recognised for their uncommon bravery and convictions must also be trained properly and Professionally with a Government  assisted grant to help them out.It is imperative that they are not put in harm's way so their use should be restricted to intelligence gathering and general surveillance reporting back to a dedicated control room.Their grassroots knowledge and appeal should be exploited by getting them to spread  messages and warnings of self awareness on what the average community or village member must look out for in form of suspicious packages,what looks like mechanical contraption or bombs,neighbours family friends and acquaintance acting suspicious etc.

I  must also declare that i strongly believe the idea of the civilian JTF is a really welcome idea which the conveners must be applauded for.

The untapped potentials of this laudable initiative must be tapped by rolling it out to the rest of Boko Haram hotspots with different incentives for people to join after carefully vetting them to make sure they are not Boko Haram moles.Owners and managers, workers  in Churches,Mosques and other public areas of dense congregation which includes shopping malls, cinemas,restaurants must be trained to identify suspicious activities and people acting surreptitiously especially in groups.Surveillance like CCTV, Xray and metal detectors must be installed in these places. Lessons must be taken from and learnt about the Westgate attacks in Nairobi and we must crank up the keenest sense of awareness and suspicions of every single Nigerian.

Lastly This goes without saying that our borders are the greatest source of worry and concern.The rate at which non Nigerians can cross over and Jay walk across our borders and back is not only puzzling but a source of mortifying embarrassment. In this day and age it is a crying shame to have unmanned borders.Moreover it is crystal clear that terrorists like the Boko Haram members have been using this to their advantage planning devastating attacks and pulling back across the borders.

The Government needs to make sure as a matter of urgency the glaring holes in our borders are plugged and properly manned.If need be more Nigerians can be employed in addition to re assigning members of our armed and unarmed forces to constantly secure and guard the borders.off the top of my head we have the civil defence corps,the man o war,civilian JTF,even reformed militants and OPC,former Bakassi members and millions of able bodied Nigerians looking for jobs and malleable enough to be trained and inculcated with relevant skills needed.

We are familiar with and proud of our long and illustrious history of championing free unencumbered trade as a veritable route to national prosperity.we should now be considering some of the parallels between freedom of trade and and freedom of security.The economies and country that gets the issue of security right will reap the bountiful results.Nigeria should be a modern hub of business,trade and opportunity in Africa 'LAND OF OPPORTUNITIES"  the only way we can get it right in an increasingly competitive global world.

I am not making a case for a 100% u-turn in Government policies,i am arguing for an intelligent and insightful debate.the issue of security is not simple and pedestrian hence it must not be taken with laxity.The cost to do the needful might appear prohibitive especially considering the approach of a very expensive election year but Nigeria needs to assure global business partners and prospective investors and entrepreneurs that we are open for global business,extending a welcome to foreigners wherever they may come from that we are secure and will protect them.

For nigeria to regain its rightful place we must ensure that we not only change the present approach of counter insurgency to what is sustainable but must win the final battle in the fight against terrorism.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2003/09/intelligence-steinberg

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110803-fighting-grassroots-terrorism-local-vigilance-help

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reprints/2007/RAND_RP1247.pdf

http://www.theirishstory.com/category/the-irish-civil-war/#.Uk7f1Y6FUUs

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/sep/11/iraq.comment

http://maplecroft.com/about/news/terrorism_risk_index_2013.html