A whole lot has been going in our political sphere,in fact it now seems something new crops up in a matter of hours and days.none however has garnered more coverage or drove the social media sphere into a temporal meltdown and social over drive at the same time than the recent APC registration and subsequent release of their manifesto.After this we have also been heralded with more recent happenstance like the registration of the PDM which was a former pressure group headed by the late Shehu Yar adua and then Atiku Abubakar.
As if this was not enough a dramatic but unprecedented incident played out on the day of the PDP convention as seven PDP Governors staged a public walk out led by Alhaji Atiku Abubakar,they subsequently announced a palace coup and their alternate faction of the PDP.
However,of all these incidents unfolding,i would only be focused on the APC. I am sure you are wondering why in the midst of the unfolding political development that is still ongoing? I can assure all that i am not a PDP apologist,neither am i in any political fifth columnist's employ,i do not have a vested interest other than the same as every Nigerian,the only reason is because not only is APC a gathering of diverse tribes,personalties and ideologies the party is also a novel and recent progression in our political clime.
Moreover this might sound incongruous,or even downright unbelievable for those who have followed my stance on APC and politicians generally, but i earnestly and genuinely want APC to work out because they seem to have the political will by Nigerian standards. It must be said however though they are subject to broadly the same moral baggages as the PDP.
Like i mentioned earlier last week precisely, i came across the APC manifesto or what seems to be an initial or rough draft and as i read through it about four times i went through a whole raft of emotions ranging from perplexity,mild anger,a hue of disappointment,sprinkled with a smattering of frustration.To be fair while i reckon large tranches of the manifesto need re-working i would also laud them for many portions of it as well.
While i do not pride myself on being an economist,even i can attest to the broadly simplistic nature of the manifesto.I would go as far as saying it seems ambitious and contrived, it seems like something a group of Politicians would hurriedly put together simply to assuage the collective grievance of a voting demographic without any thought as to the implementation,funding or how practical.This might seem like me nit picking,but i passionately believe apart from the obvious problems with politicians, another issue which is like a monkey on their backs is OVER PROMISING the electorate.They promise the earth and the moon and as soon as they are elected,they are unable to accomplish their promises which then results in a vicious and all encompassing cloud of distrust and disconnect engulfing all participants over and over.
I went on the APC website and trawled through their Facebook page,on the website their manifesto was displayed in a separate section, elaborately crafted and outlining a detailed and all encompassing narration of the major issues bedevilling us as a Nation.I managed to snap out of my self induced mesmerising and spell binding reverie then set about with great effort i must say to isolate the faffery and identify issues which seem of common importance and good.
Under the sub-heading titled INFRASTRUCTURE the APC promises the following
Generate, transmit and distribute from current 5,000 – 6,000 MW to at least 20,000 MW of electricity within four years and increasing to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving 24/7 uninterrupted power supply within ten years, whilst simultaneously ensuring development of sustainable/renewable energy;
Embark on a National Infrastructural Development Programme as a PPP that will ensure the
(a) construction of 3,000km of Superhighway including service trunks and (b) building of up to 4,800km of modern railway lines – one third to be completed by 2019;
Looking at their policy on electricity while it is achievable why not, considering what smaller Nations like South Africa are presently generating, in this instance they have failed abysmally to state pertinent determinants like how much this will cost, the energy source {coal,nuclear,kinetic which might be in form of windmills,dams,sunlight} they are proposing to use considering the far reaching implications of each of those power sources and associated risks.
According to the World Nuclear Association South Africa with a population of about fifty million plus (50m) give or take few hundreds of thousands on either side, an effective yardstick worthy of comparison to us presently generates about 34,000MegaWatts of electricity with a price tag of R385 billion ($50billion) until this year 2013.Invariably a party aspiring to Governance making these claims will be looking to spend at least $5 to $15 billion dollars estimate in the first year alone,considering the level of specialised consultancy,research and engineering that would go into a total overhaul and revitalisation of our dormant electricity sector.I do not want to regard our initial foray under OBJ Government as a worthwhile adventure considering how abysmally the whole project was handled for all the good it did us and the present state of the equipments,power stations,distribution outlets.
Concerning the super highway which was another issue in the manifesto, i would like to see them demonstrate an understanding of the different soil topography across the Nation and how this will impact on the overall cost and benefit analysis. This might seem an obvious point but not when the complexity of our Politicians and the way they go about issues are considered.This clarification I propose is necessary even imperative, considering the absurd and diverse road costing indices. For instance while the OGUN state Government under Govenor Amosun spent the sum of N1.1 billion Naira per kilometre to lay or build a township road,the records show the preceding Governor Daniel spent a much lower N46 million Per kilometre on similar road with same topography this is within 2years interval.Factoring in even a malignant and rampant inflation the disparity in price is still mind boggling.
The party said that it would make the economy one of the fastest growing economies by achieving a real GDP growth of 10 per cent annually
Again while the party promised to increase the National GDP growth by 10% yearly..read above.
This particular proposition was actually what jumped out at me after my initial cursory look at the much awaited Manifesto.For such a weighty and far reaching economic prediction,i was disappointed that there were no indicators on how they will go about achieving this.They failed to outline a policy breakdown showing economic landmarks and indices. The trading economics website outlines china's yearly GDP for two years running at 7.5%, at the peak of their GDP growth around 2008 they attained 11.5% for a very short time in less than a year...see http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
So to reiterate again i am really intrigued and interested to see any sort of evidential navigator or even superior argument from their economist.We need to know for instance what non oil based sector their major focus will be on,what their projected oil benchmark will be and their medium to long term projection to achieving this GDP growth.
In the health sector, the APC said that it would work to reduce infant mortality rate by 2019 to three per cent and reduce maternal mortality by more than 70 per cent
While their pledge concerning the health sector is also quite laudable,where will the funds to actualise this come from?
What good is a policy if there are no allocation or funds to carry it out?
Presently as a Nation we are projected to reach 220million in less than 10 years so already there is pressure to reform this sector,the United Nations have also stated that Nigeria has one of the highest infant and Maternal mortality rate,so already there is a lot of pressure on any Government to pro actively engage itself in this sub sector of health . In spite of this however we can not repudiate the fact that this will cost a lot of money.
What percentage % will be funded by International Non Profit Organisations?
What percentage will be funded by the Govt?
What percentage will be approached from a PPP perspective,if they have plans to?
The Nhs run on a yearly budget of £85B catering to a population of 64 plus,Nigeria conservatively is 160m hence such weighty assertions by the APC again deserves an economic deconstruction,to be fair in solution a socially epidemiologic approach with clear and realistic targets must be put in place and rigidly set in stone with supervisory health consultants to monitor periodic progress.A country like the UK built an NHS which is the envy of nations worldwide and a thriving medical tourism by following through with these economic theories.
They also assert that they will establish a well-trained, adequately equipped and goals driven Serious Crime Squad to combat terrorism, kidnapping, armed robbery, militants, ethno-religious and communal clashes nationwide;Begin widespread consultations to amend the Constitution to enable States and Local Governments to employ State and Community Police to address the peculiar needs of each community. This would mean setting boundaries for Federal, State and Community Police through new Criminal Justice legislation to replace the Criminal Code, the Penal Code and the Police Act.
While i cautiously applaud them for a robust and thought out initiative {broadly speaking of course} in this rapidly deteriorating sector, i could not help but again wonder why terrorism does not seem to have aquired a higher priority.We all know how much of a nightmare this issue is,overshadowing any other consideration in recent times so i would have expected a more in depth response.I am understandably concerned just like every Nigerian on the indiscriminate killing,bloodshed and all round terrorist attacks that has been going on unabated.We have seen hundreds of women,children,men and all else in between bombed in churches,mosques and outside generally.
The cardinal importance of this sector can not be overstated considering security of the citizens is the first and most important duty of the Government towards its people.
While the party in the Manifesto..above broadly outlines their plans on security and its enforcement,i honestly believe this has not gone far enough. For the devastation terrorism has wreaked on us collectively as a Nation,i would have expected it would feature more prominently and the plans laid out more in-depth than a few pedestrian lines.I would suggest they manifest an empathy and the importance of this issue by riding the Nigerian Security Organisation (NSO) and the State Security Service (SSS) of the apparent tribalism which has almost ground them to a stand still.Nepotism,corruption,non professionalism are some of the sordid smirch that needs to be cleared out of their aegean stables.An organisation of that nature vested with the security of the Nation and battling with internal terrorism with constant and active external collision is not only doing itself a disservice but the nation as well by employing operatives based on Tribal affiliation,godfather recommendation,familial connections and less on actual Qualifications.
Secondly no insurgency has ever been quelled by going in and effectively flattening the whole town,this creates collateral damage and turns the indigene of that locality against the "invading" forces.
To effectively fight and control terrorism and security challenges confronting us as a nation,more attention needs to be paid towards contemporary intelligence gathering,developing sources to infiltrate and less emphasis on sending in JTF to kill,maim and flatten everything in sight.Lastly real and proven operatives who have actually studied the course in some intellectual capacity coupled with experiences should be employed.such sector needs true technocrats to put them back on the right path,and not policemen masquerading as technocrats.
Under the agriculture and food promise the Apc made ensuing promise
Modernise the sector and change Nigeria from being a country of self-subsistence farmers to that of a medium/commercial scale farming nation/producer;
Create a nationwide food inspectorate division with a view to improving nutrition and eliminating food-borne hazards;
Inject extra N30bn to the Agricultural sector to create more agro-allied jobs by way of loans at nominal interest rates for capital investment on medium and commercial scale cash crops;
Guarantee a minimum price for selected crops and facilitate storage of agricultural products as and when necessary.
While i broadly accede to this,again i am not too convinced simply because i do not see a new and radical approach to tackling the agriculture and food challenge.We know about the import waiver scams costing the Nation Hundreds of billions yearly which is perpetuated through rice importation.We know about the fertiliser cartel using it to perpetuate corruption and impoverish farmers,all these needs to be addressed which i do not see any indication of here.
How will the staple food monopoly and stranglehold on the Nation by Dangote be broken?
I would have expected a model encouraging students from secondary school to Tertiary institutions being funded and encouraged to go into farming by organising individual and group allotments. I would have liked to see micro economic help in form of co-op finance for subsistence farmers but none of these were even touched upon directing me to conclude they have no plans in this direction unless i am proven wrong.
Concerning their undertaking on industrialisation i was looking forward to some binding and specific spending allocation especially in our moribund textile industry ,the steel rolling mills ,the cottage industries ,food manufacturing, assembly plants again they simply glossed over it with a generic token pledge,which is a huge disservice to such sector considering the part it has played in job creation,stimulating the economy,providing foreign exchange and generally stabilising the economy.
What sort of incentives like import waivers and additional soft loans will be given to industrialists?
Will the present initiatives by the Goodluck Jonathan Government on the loans channelled through the Bank of Industry which i find laudable be continued or improved upon?
To be fair,the Goodluck Jonathan Government has provided 100b Naira routed through the Bank of Industry and is presently being assessed by the industrialists which is really great.
The in coming Government or in this case if APC are able to form the next one, would need to do much better than what the Manifesto outlines by building on the token the Goodluck Jonathan Government has provided as inferred above.It would go a long way in restoring lost confidence,and even persuade the Banks to lend to a recovering manufacturing sector on low APR. No nation can become truly industrialised and developing in line with the global world without massive investment in and a thriving manufacturing and industrial sector.
On their education policy,while i genuinely applaud their insight and seeming commitment {from what i can deduce from reading anyway} they failed to convince regarding their seriousness in engaging actively on this issue.
They did not outline a detailed draft on how they will go about the redemption of their promise.
The primary and secondary school syllabus needs a radical overhaul,we must dispense with the obsolete colonial style areas which the British educational institution do not even use again and attach relevant and contemporary sections that will enhance,enrich their educational experience.
Primary and secondary school students for instance in my opinion will find a compulsory basic knowledge of the three major languages useful and far reaching socially and educationally than a study of French language.Teaching students about the civil war,June 12 annulment and other such watershed will be of more benefit to their sense of civic duty than an archaic narrative history of the British which might not even be as relevant any more.
Moreover,through the Asuu Vs Government stand off we have been able to gain a new and illuminating insight into the main problems bedevilling higher institutions which is a sustained and consistent funding.
I must admit the 15% allocation pledge by the APC in their manifesto is a good start but an ongoing transparent,consistent clear and committed plan for the higher education sector will be a reassurance.
They need to dedicate available resources to making our higher institutions of world class standards before even considering building new Universities.
In the section on Senior citizens Youth and culture
Even though the APC make a good and reasoned stance on their plans for the youth i can only perceive what seems to me a token act towards the pertinent issue of youth inclusion in Politics and generally.They are not only about 60% {not confirmed but guesstimate} of the total population (18-40),they are the vehicle and platform to drag any Nation desirous of growth out of their stagnation and inactive state.Furthermore without youth empowerment real growth,development and social and political mobility will be a mirage and impossibility.
All i can certify from the sub-section is a nominal action concerning youth participation and inclusion,it would seem that there is a generational disconnect in the policy-manifesto especially concerning the youths and their role.The subsequent actions listed underneath this same section to benefit the youths points to a patronising view by listing sports and all things associated with it as if all they care about is sports exclusive of participating in elections and Governance.
While they succinctly outline the role of women in political participation,no mention of this under the sub heading for the youths, i would not want to erroneously presume but simply ask rhetorically if this means they have no active and inclusive role for the youths amongst the list of APC aspirants?
The party needs to come out and draw a clear outline concerning this.As far as i am concerned a party without a clear cut and robust role for women and youth participation with specific numbers and prerequisites are not egalitarian.
The world has gone past this and certainly globalisation has unleashed a whole raft of potentials in the average Nigerian youth and opened their eyes to possibilities previously unconsidered .The political parties starting with the APC needs to urgently realise that Nigerian youths and women will no more be satisfied with the nominal roles they are forced to play if they really want their continued support.The role of youth leaders,personal assistants and such clerical and domestic roles demean the enlightenment,knowledge and intellectual potentials of the average Nigerian youth and woman generally.
If the active participation in politics via election and as aspirants is good enough for the children and wards of Nigerian political big wigs not to mention the average age of policy makers,speech writers,policy makers in western democracies then it is certainly good for the average Nigerian both in and out of the country.
The APC must demonstrate that they understand and feel empathy for the yearning of the women and youths in the country,and are not embarking on business as usual,they must showcase a superior moral judgement and subsequent platform which they have been found sorely wanting on so far.An obvious example is their puzzling and clandestine stance on opposing Local Government Autonomy in the constitutional adjustment in Nass.
Another issue worth exploring which i will just briefly touch on is the way and manner we Nigerians tend to vote.Presently an Anti PDP wave is surging through the electorate,with many seeing the APC as the viable alternative.Before it was PDP during the Obasanjo years with the Afenifere in same situation the PDP has presently found itself. In all of this we have tended to allow base emotions and erroneous party affiliations to guide and influence us into voting in the wrong candidates and then we serially complain and gripe after they start showing their true colours.We need to be politically sophisticated and hold individuals politicians and political aspirants to their political and moral antecedents.
We must begin to vote for Aspirants,based on their records in and out of Government and not blindly follow party affiliation.An aspirant Mr Ezemo contested against Senator Ngige in the Anambra APC primaries,the party allowed this man to contest and some actually voted for him neglecting to ask pertinent questions on his moral judgement.This was a man indicted in foreign courts for dumping toxic waste in his own country Nigeria,is his being in the APC now serving to absolve him being a man of marginal moral judgement?
I would enjoin that we should only vote in aspirants with a proven records irrespective of their party affiliation.That is political sophistication and that is the only thing that can help us in having a representative that will give us the elusive dividends of democracy.
Even though the party might be inheriting a country on the vestiges and throes of a crisis of trust due to consistently failed promises and unbridled corruption by the Government in power,they have ample opportunity to assuage collective distrust of politicians by the average Nigerian by simply getting it right through correcting all the major deficiencies and having the moral and political will to sustain it.They need to realise that trust especially implicit trust in politicians and their model of Governance is not infinite,it has a finite sell by date when the average Nigerian youth across religious ethnic or even gender lines will say enough is enough.Needless to say a brand new and positively enhancing political course needs to be charted.
The Nigerian problem is not for want of a diverse and intellectualy superior and instructive socio economic policies but for political leaders and even followers cloaked in a highly impressive moral mould who possess the political will to follow through.
sources................
http://www.allprogressivescongress.org/manifesto/
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-O-S/South-Africa/#.UiY2VI6FUUs
http://allafrica.com/stories/201307011298.html
http://news.naij.com/44602.html
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